Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e5a…96bc sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$138 (-11%) realized −$135 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$59
14 days−$148
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$145
other 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.4% +0.8% 67% 67% -16.5%
≤30d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 55% -20.2%
≤90d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 55% -20.2%
all 22 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 55% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 55% -20.2%
10% -22.6% 45% -27.8%
15% -30.1% 32% -34.8%
20% -37.0% 18% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$44 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage14d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon Lautaro Midon 40¢ 37¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz Jun 22 $26 +$11 +43%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $120 −$95 -79%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $80 +$40 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $80 +$44 +54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $22 +$15 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$13 +140%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $80 −$58 -73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $76 −$29 -38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $44 +$6 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $179 +$41 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $10 −$9 -97%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 12 $99 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $86 +$20 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $81 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $60 +$21 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $52 +$8 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$21 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Lautaro Midon BUY Lautaro Midon 40¢ $37 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz SELL Aziz Dougaz 100¢ $37 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Chidekh vs Aziz Dougaz BUY Aziz Dougaz 69¢ $26 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 13¢ $26 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 59¢ $120 3h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 14h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $80 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $43 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 51¢ $43 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $37 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $22 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 39h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $9 39h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 29¢ $48 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $50 42h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl SELL Phantom 63¢ $50 42h
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY Phantom 54¢ $44 42h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $5 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.48 · official $31.67 · 87 history records