Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e5c…1496 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
politics 23% −$2
other 20% −$1
crypto 9% −$1
culture 9% −$1
economics 5% $0
world 5% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.9%
all 150 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 143
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage173d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $37 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $72 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $99 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Feb 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $97 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $196 −$1 -0%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 05 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $35 8d
Will the Dallas Stars be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 95¢ $36 8d
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F SELL No 96¢ $36 16d
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY No 98¢ $7 16d
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F BUY No 98¢ $29 16d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 96¢ $40 27d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 96¢ $40 27d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 39d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 42d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 42d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 42d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol SELL No 96¢ $43 133d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY No 97¢ $43 133d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $48 133d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $48 133d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $41 133d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $41 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 133d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $47 133d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 133d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $48 133d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $48 133d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 133d
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 133d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $47 133d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 133d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol SELL No 96¢ $45 133d
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol BUY No 97¢ $45 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.72 · official $40.72 (match) · 466 history records