Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e5e…bb61 other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-0%) realized −$153 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,246per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days+$31
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$67
politics 41% −$80
culture 5% −$11
economics 4% −$7
sports 4% −$23
world 2% −$3
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 9% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 118 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 6% -9.6%
all 118 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 6% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,376) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$4 · ×5.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized−$153
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,246
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $369 $365 −$4 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $312 $314 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,640 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,896 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,124 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $740 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,036 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,348 −$4 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,955 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $867 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $525 +$1 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,819 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $449 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $872 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? May 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $52 +$50 +97%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $3,855 −$4 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $3,739 −$6 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $52 +$35 +67%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $2,291 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $3,646 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $912 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $54 −$54 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $2,471 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $418 5h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $502 5h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $503 7h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $584 8h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $585 11h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $505 32h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $506 35h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $501 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $487 2d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $488 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $493 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $494 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $369 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $655 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $656 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $709 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $710 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $779 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $780 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $698 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $699 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $834 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,002 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $844 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.99 · official $678.99 (match) · 387 history records