Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e61…a88a sports 338 markets active 2h ago coverage 710d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$948 (-2%) realized −$1,441 · open +$493
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate46%152W / 178L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,003now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days+$126
14 days+$79
30 days+$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$1,084
other 26% +$625
world 12% +$38
politics 11% −$181
economics 3% −$33
crypto 2% −$142
weather 2% −$156
tech 2% +$23
culture 1% −$111
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.5% -22.6% 33% 33% +2.8%
≤30d 33 -10.3% -18.9% 27% 21% -4.8%
≤90d 62 -10.1% -18.7% 27% 16% -8.8%
all 330 -12.9% -21.2% 46% 24% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 24% -13.1%
10% -28.7% 15% -21.4%
15% -35.6% 10% -29.0%
20% -41.9% 8% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$3,003
Realized−$1,441
Unrealized+$493
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses152 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)330 / 338
History coverage710d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $733 $1,051 +$318 (+43%)
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $796 $1,031 +$235 (+30%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $308 $322 +$14 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $307 $250 −$57 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $56 $50 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $111 −$56 -50%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $96 −$21 -22%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 26 $714 +$202 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$23 -92%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $352 −$20 -6%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $441 −$4 -1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $100 +$150 +150%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 06 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 05 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 −$18 -35%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $52 −$42 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30? Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? May 31 $28 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $51 +$41 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $52 +$81 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $51 −$24 -46%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $143 −$107 -75%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $165 −$165 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $584 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $52 −$35 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $22 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 30 $51 −$18 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30? May 30 $52 +$76 +148%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $110 +$398 +362%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 30 $20 −$16 -80%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $61 −$41 -68%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 14 $40 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 01 $36 +$6 +16%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $56 −$13 -24%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 10 $318 −$2 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $296 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $144 +$3 +2%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 07 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $67 −$31 -46%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $490 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $366 −$4 -1%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 06 $282 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 06 $247 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 1h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes $56 47h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $75 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $96 47h
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $25 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 2d
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 18¢ $279 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 30¢ $472 2d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $818 2d
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL Yes 67¢ $98 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $25 9d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $252 9d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 19¢ $217 9d
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $248 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $234 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $244 20d
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 22d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $104 22d
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 22d
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 56¢ $312 22d
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $40 22d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $4 22d
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $14 22d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes $3 22d
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,003.24 · official $3,003.31 (match) · 1292 history records