Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e61…931b weather 1158 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%1058W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days−$35
14 days−$170
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 200 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 704 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 1122 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
all 1122 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$43 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$2,324
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1058 / 64
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1122 / 1158
History coverage62d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $171 $179 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? No 97¢ 87¢ $124 $111 −$13 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C or higher on June 20? No 83¢ 100¢ $89 $107 +$18 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $92 $95 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 96¢ 99¢ $91 $93 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C or below on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 20? No 97¢ 99¢ $89 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 100¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 20? No 97¢ 98¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $78 $81 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? No 97¢ 100¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $76 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 20? No 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? No 96¢ 88¢ $47 $43 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $88 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $86 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19? Jun 20 $89 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $117 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 85°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 20 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19? Jun 20 $113 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $45 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 19? Jun 19 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June Jun 19 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $87 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $85 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $89 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $88 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $91 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $118 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $124 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $117 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $176 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $129 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $78 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $7 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $26 34m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $6 38m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $55 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $91 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $46 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $46 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $84 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 21? BUY No 97¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $81 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $84 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,323.66 · official $2,322.50 (match) · 3234 history records