Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e63…9e38 sports 627 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 146d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,556 (+2%) realized +$12,556 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%449W / 204L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$893per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$630est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,757
7 days−$2,312
14 days−$1,283
30 days+$1,743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$11,841
politics 14% $0
other 6% +$143
crypto 1% −$708
world 0% +$653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -14.3% -22.5% 27% 20% -22.7%
≤30d 135 -3.4% -12.6% 58% 41% -7.9%
≤90d 365 -1.1% -10.6% 64% 43% -6.9%
all 653 -0.1% -9.6% 69% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 34% -7.9%
10% -18.3% 25% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -26.2% 19% -24.7%
20% -33.4% 14% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$126 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses449 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$630
Open positions0
Markets (closed)653 / 627
History coverage146d ⚠
Avg bet$893
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 653 Trades
no open positions (158 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Tundra Esports Jun 17 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs. Yakult Brothers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs. YkBros Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Team Falcons Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Wildcard Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45-50 million views on day 1? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Trailer Park Boys (BO3) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. PARIVISION Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Wildcard Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $166 −$166 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Kukuys - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Jun 17 $1 +$14 +2379%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. Team Nemesis Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Natus Vincere Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Trailer Park Boys - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $381 −$381 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs. Team Liquid Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Heroic Jun 17 $468 −$447 -95%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs. BOOM Esports Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs AVULUS (BO3) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $543 +$317 +58%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $72 +$24 +34%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,162 +$86 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $7,267 +$382 +5%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,170 +$138 +12%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $1,381 −$1,381 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $459 −$459 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $216 −$214 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $299 +$10 +3%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $310 +$73 +24%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $122 −$13 -11%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $585 +$173 +30%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $488 +$162 +33%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$110 +114%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $338 −$335 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $203 +$147 +72%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $108 −$108 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $240 +$260 +108%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $148 −$148 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,559 +$946 +37%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $537 −$528 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $566 +$84 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $118 −$115 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Flame Team 100¢ $859 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 61¢ $156 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 61¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $384 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $96 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 74¢ $72 2h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $1,249 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $7,150 17h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $54 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $62 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $192 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 93¢ $930 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 93¢ $232 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 97¢ $97 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 97¢ $300 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 97¢ $97 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer SELL LGD Gaming 97¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $30 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $33 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $192 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $96 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $1,307 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $24 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $50 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $173 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $1 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $6 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $6 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $64 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY LGD Gaming 96¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records