trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -8.0% | -16.8% | 86% | 29% | -13.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -22.3% | -29.7% | 71% | 21% | -11.0% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -14.2% | -22.4% | 79% | 21% | -10.6% |
| all | 19 | -14.2% | -22.4% | 79% | 21% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.4% | 21% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -29.8% | 0% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -36.6% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -42.8% | 0% | -34.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 90¢ | 95¢ | $1,080 | $1,143 | +$63 (+6%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $1,008 | $1,086 | +$78 (+8%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 73¢ | 72¢ | $1,022 | $1,015 | −$7 (-1%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 91¢ | $289 | $279 | −$11 (-4%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 90¢ | $90 | $90 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 14¢ | 10¢ | $100 | $68 | −$32 (-32%) |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $14 | +$4 (+43%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $2,607 | +$278 | +11% |
| Starmer out by June 26, 2026? | Jun 22 | $2,250 | +$116 | +5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Jun 21 | $530 | +$43 | +8% |
| Starmer out by June 22, 2026? | Jun 20 | $758 | +$148 | +20% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 19 | $2,036 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $1,007 | +$7 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $15,036 | −$1,806 | -12% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 15 | $5,110 | −$3,914 | -77% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $513 | −$484 | -94% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $1,008 | −$938 | -93% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 07 | $4,282 | +$299 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $6,425 | +$851 | +13% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 01 | $78 | +$2 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 26 | $3,203 | +$311 | +10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $1,224 | +$58 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $198 | +$19 | +9% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | May 14 | $101 | +$18 | +18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | May 12 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | May 09 | $78 | +$2 | +3% |