Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e67…caa5 other 228 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$37
sports 22% −$18
culture 7% −$6
politics 7% −$5
economics 5% −$5
world 4% −$4
crypto 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 227 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 228
History coverage130d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $556 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $233 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $486 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $302 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $416 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $320 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $341 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $248 −$2 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $408 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 20m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 47m
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 1h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 13h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 18h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $16 18h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $35 19h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $35 20h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 20h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 24h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 27h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 28h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 30h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 31h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 32h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 34h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 36h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 38h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 39h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 41h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $51 44h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $51 45h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 47h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.08 · official $50.08 (match) · 1303 history records