Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e68…ff8a crypto 1399 markets active 5h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$155 (-2%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%750W / 649L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$221
other 11% −$47
sports 2% −$22
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +10.0% -0.5% 44% 27% -11.5%
≤30d 41 +10.0% -0.5% 44% 27% -11.5%
≤90d 1085 -4.7% -13.7% 54% 51% -12.9%
all 1399 -6.4% -15.4% 54% 50% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 50% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 40% -21.7%
15% -30.9% 27% -29.3%
20% -37.6% 17% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses750 / 649
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1399 / 1399
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1399 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $19 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $17 +$4 +23%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 +$5 +30%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$9 +874%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$10 -97%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +347%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$2 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$2 +59%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$3 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$1 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL No 93¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY No 93¢ $19 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 89¢ $1 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $19 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY No 99¢ $23 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY No 91¢ $19 10h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 80¢ $17 10h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 81¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 84¢ $17 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 88¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 90¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 93¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 87¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 91¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL No 85¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 87¢ $18 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? SELL No 92¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $19 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Under 31¢ $0 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $11 25h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 0¢ $1 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $1 26h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 2¢ $1 26h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 71¢ $1 27h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 75¢ $16 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 74¢ $1 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $16 27h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 82¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 85¢ $18 27h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 82¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records