Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e6a…681d sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$734 (-33%) realized −$813 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$829
sports 40% +$159
crypto 13% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 38% -53.3%
≤30d 8 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 38% -53.3%
≤90d 8 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 38% -53.3%
all 8 -24.1% -31.3% 38% 38% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 38% -53.3%
10% -37.9% 38% -57.7%
15% -43.9% 38% -61.8%
20% -49.4% 38% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$231 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized−$813
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands to win the second half? No 65¢ 66¢ $284 $286 +$2 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Yes 47¢ 64¢ $181 $249 +$68 (+37%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $133 $135 +$2 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 27¢ $46 $54 +$8 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan to win the second half? Jun 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 29 $820 −$809 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 178.5 Jun 29 $46 +$34 +73%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 29 $135 +$213 +158%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 29 $210 +$160 +76%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 28 $180 −$178 -99%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5) Jun 28 $68 −$67 -99%
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) Jun 28 $72 −$71 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $184 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $136 5h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY No 65¢ $287 6h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 12h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 55¢ $262 12h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 54¢ $558 20h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 54¢ $180 32h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 57¢ $46 32h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-6.5) BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $68 33h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $9 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 39¢ $8 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $6 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $118 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $204 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 37h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 37h
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $36 42h
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) BUY Nigma Galaxy 43¢ $36 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $744.97 · official $745.03 (match) · 24 history records