Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e6f…f8e8 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$95 (+7%) realized +$102 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$172
other 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.4% +8.0% 63% 63% +4.5%
≤30d 19 +19.4% +8.0% 63% 63% +4.5%
≤90d 19 +19.4% +8.0% 63% 63% +4.5%
all 19 +19.4% +8.0% 63% 63% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 63% +4.5%
10% -2.3% 63% -5.5%
15% -11.7% 63% -14.6%
20% -20.4% 47% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$33 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)19 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 68¢ 66¢ $80 $77 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 65¢ 66¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Farman Hasanov 61¢ 60¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon Pablo Llamas Ruiz 65¢ 66¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals No 51¢ 50¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova Lucie Havlickova 58¢ 56¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox No 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic Jaime Faria 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino Tristan Boyer 62¢ 60¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Max Basing 35¢ 36¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Toronto Blue Jays 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Heather Watson 63¢ 60¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 69¢ 69¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Yes 51¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 23 $81 +$38 +47%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $84 +$49 +58%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 23 $15 +$13 +86%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 23 $71 −$16 -23%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 22 $25 +$25 +99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To Jun 22 $36 +$42 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 22 $61 +$27 +45%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 22 $46 +$26 +58%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N Jun 21 $42 +$37 +90%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 21 $29 +$27 +91%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 21 $29 +$26 +88%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Jun 21 $43 +$16 +38%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 21 $46 +$36 +79%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 20 $27 −$27 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 69¢ $15 57m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v BUY Yes 51¢ $15 57m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 63¢ $20 59m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Tristan Boyer vs Andrea Pellegrino BUY Tristan Boyer 62¢ $25 1h
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 66¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Jaime Faria 70¢ $30 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $40 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $40 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 43¢ $25 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 67¢ $81 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Lucie Havlickova BUY Lucie Havlickova 58¢ $35 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 65¢ $35 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 55¢ $30 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 51¢ $36 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Max Basing 35¢ $20 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. To BUY Yes 45¢ $36 31h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 62¢ $33 39h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 49¢ $25 40h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 57¢ $46 40h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 53¢ $15 40h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Edas Butvilas vs Moez Echargui BUY Edas Butvilas 69¢ $61 40h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper BUY Brandon Nakashima 52¢ $10 41h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 68¢ $61 41h
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $51 41h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu BUY Darja Vidmanova 72¢ $43 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. N BUY No 52¢ $42 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. BUY No 52¢ $29 2d
Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $46 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 50¢ $27 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.02 · official $458.04 (match) · 49 history records