Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e73…5985 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-71%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -89% what you keep after slip
Net edge-89%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$16
sports 17% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-88.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -87.3% -88.5% 12% 0% -95.7%
≤30d 8 -87.3% -88.5% 12% 0% -95.7%
≤90d 8 -87.3% -88.5% 12% 0% -95.7%
all 8 -87.3% -88.5% 12% 0% -95.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -88.5% 0% -95.7%
10% -89.6% 0% -96.1%
15% -90.6% 0% -96.5%
20% -91.6% 0% -96.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -95% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -87% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $5 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $5 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.52 · official $6.52 (match) · 11 history records