Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e74…f5c4 crypto 199 markets active 5h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-9%) realized −$184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate62%123W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$230
14 days−$203
30 days−$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$249
sports 2% −$1
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 30% -48.8%
≤30d 199 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 36% -20.5%
≤90d 199 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 36% -20.5%
all 199 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 36% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 36% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 28% -28.1%
15% -31.9% 23% -35.1%
20% -38.5% 16% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses123 / 76
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage20d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$117 +369%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $167 −$167 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$13 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$40 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 815 history records