Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:18:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e75…50d7 sports 213 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$775 (+1%) realized +$775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%134W / 79L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$668per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$368est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$395
7 days+$227
14 days−$515
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,739
crypto 20% −$2,568
other 19% +$1,017
politics 0% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 40% +3.1%
≤30d 25 +14.3% +3.4% 48% 44% -20.1%
≤90d 104 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 41% -15.3%
all 213 +1.4% -8.2% 63% 48% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 48% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 32% -18.0%
15% -25.0% 21% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$860) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$289 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses134 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$368
Open positions0
Markets (closed)213 / 213
History coverage225d
Avg bet$668
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 213 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $587 +$198 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $587 +$37 +6%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $37 +$103 +276%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $627 −$5 -1%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 +$6 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $82 −$19 -24%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $29 +$119 +408%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $110 +$111 +100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $177 +$81 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $31 −$3 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $178 +$59 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $629 +$103 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $31 −$23 -75%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Kor Jun 09 $216 −$216 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 09 $505 −$505 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi Jun 09 $435 −$435 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 09 $31 +$116 +376%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $179 +$76 +43%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 12 $102 +$177 +173%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $524 +$454 +87%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $503 −$149 -30%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Gianluca Cadena May 07 $197 +$103 +52%
Santos: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Facundo Mena May 05 $303 −$141 -46%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Madrid Open: Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva May 05 $107 −$107 -99%
Aix en Provence: Martin Landaluce vs Ethan Quinn Apr 30 $402 +$5 +1%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 30 $503 +$125 +25%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova Apr 29 $503 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 29 $707 −$92 -13%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 28 $40 +$104 +259%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx Apr 28 $903 +$105 +12%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $52 +$103 +197%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 27 $550 +$88 +16%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 27 $860 +$135 +16%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $468 +$176 +38%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 26 $700 +$120 +17%
Madrid Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Tommy Paul Apr 25 $354 +$239 +67%
Madrid Open: Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $850 +$284 +33%
Madrid Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic Apr 22 $500 +$129 +26%
Madrid Open: Paula Badosa vs Julia Grabher Apr 21 $1,800 +$131 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $785 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $587 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 89¢ $624 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $411 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $1 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $13 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $42 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $14 6h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 83¢ $107 6h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $210 7h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 48¢ $102 8h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 26¢ $37 33h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 32¢ $51 34h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 3¢ $0 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Jenson Brooksby 3¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 98¢ $975 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $31 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $31 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $111 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $31 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $31 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $186 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $64 2d
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 62¢ $137 2d
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 10¢ $31 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $119 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $27 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 99¢ $148 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 603 history records