Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e7d…9d55 other 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$37
sports 22% −$20
economics 8% −$8
politics 8% −$9
culture 6% −$8
crypto 6% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 1% -9.7%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage139d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 98¢ 98¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $135 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $646 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $340 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $385 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $334 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $308 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $560 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $370 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $398 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $869 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $298 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $369 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $552 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $234 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $242 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $570 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $246 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 50m
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 2h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 5h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 7h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 8h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 11h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 14h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $62 16h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 18h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 26h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 27h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $63 29h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $63 30h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 32h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $63 33h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 42h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 47h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.12 · official $61.12 (match) · 1445 history records