Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6E 0x6e80…56c5 sports 444 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$73 (+2%) realized +$77 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%174W / 254L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$21
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$87
tech 2% +$3
other 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$9
finance 0% +$3
world 0% −$3
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 40% +13.2%
≤30d 22 -13.0% -21.3% 36% 36% -12.8%
≤90d 84 -36.0% -42.1% 30% 29% -21.5%
all 428 +0.7% -8.9% 41% 40% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 40% -7.9%
10% -17.6% 40% -16.7%
15% -25.6% 39% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 36% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses174 / 254
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)428 / 444
History coverage195d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +144%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $9 +$16 +179%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3 +$9 +307%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $5 +$7 +140%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $8 −$8 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $3 +$5 +172%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $9 +$4 +49%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $5 +$3 +59%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $11 +$2 +14%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $6 +$8 +127%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $7 $0 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $6 −$3 -58%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $4 +$3 +79%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $16 +$8 +50%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $2 +$6 +276%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $8 +$6 +70%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 26 $4 +$10 +249%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 24 $9 +$5 +60%
Will SpaceX raise between $110B and $120B in its IPO? Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 23 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $14 +$7 +49%
Canadiens vs. Flyers Apr 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 10 $5 +$5 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 35¢ $5 1h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 27h
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 27h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 31¢ $2 36h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 36¢ $3 37h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 26¢ $2 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $3 4d
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 20¢ $3 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 16¢ $2 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 24¢ $3 11d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market clos BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market clos BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13d
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market clos BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? BUY Yes $1 13d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $5 13d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens $1 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 26¢ $2 19d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 17¢ $1 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 40¢ $2 21d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $2 21d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 21d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? SELL Yes $0 21d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE? SELL Yes $0 21d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 51¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.27 · official $26.27 (match) · 933 history records