Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e84…6c38 other 248 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$37
sports 25% −$26
politics 9% −$8
culture 8% −$7
crypto 6% −$2
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage131d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $491 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 21 $603 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $360 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $567 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $242 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $693 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $144 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $274 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $954 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $374 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $198 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $187 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $802 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 2h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $45 12h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $45 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 14h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 17h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 19h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 22h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 23h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 25h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 26h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $46 28h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 33h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $38 34h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 36h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 37h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $46 38h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $46 40h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 45h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 47h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $36 47h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.12 · official $45.12 (match) · 1387 history records