Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e85…c104 crypto 267 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$643 (+3%) realized +$42 · open +$601
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%62W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$437
14 days−$441
30 days−$1,137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$135
sports 4% −$294
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 19 -89.1% -90.1% 5% 5% -78.0%
≤90d 121 -47.1% -52.2% 18% 17% -33.9%
all 266 -26.0% -33.1% 23% 23% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 23% -13.2%
10% -39.5% 22% -21.5%
15% -45.3% 21% -29.1%
20% -50.7% 20% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$64 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$749
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$601
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses62 / 204
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)266 / 267
History coverage149d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 11¢ 56¢ $148 $749 +$601 (+406%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $222 −$210 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $236 −$222 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $214 +$144 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $151 −$143 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $196 −$184 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$44 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $79 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $79 −$75 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $212 −$200 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $8 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $3 +$3 +110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 21? May 21 $85 −$80 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $53 −$47 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $214 −$202 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $6 −$3 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $196 −$184 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $197 −$185 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 16 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $197 +$678 +344%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 14 $4 +$13 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $80 −$74 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 12 $223 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 10 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 10 $212 −$200 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 11¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY No 21¢ $222 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 12¢ $236 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 25¢ $109 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 71¢ $77 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $53 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 72¢ $172 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 16¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 14¢ $151 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 8¢ $196 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY No 4¢ $47 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 4¢ $79 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $11 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? BUY No 4¢ $53 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 22¢ $79 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? BUY Up 6¢ $29 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $748.93 · official $754.39 (match) · 513 history records