Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6E 0x6e85…1f81 other 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$757 (+1%) realized +$755 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%75W / 103L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$5,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,425
7 days−$1,425
14 days−$1,650
30 days−$1,977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$2,984
world 21% −$5,131
sports 5% +$404
crypto 4% +$6,384
politics 2% +$1,307
culture 2% +$256
tech 0% −$500
economics 0% +$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -53.9% -58.3% 0% 0% -56.8%
≤30d 14 -15.4% -23.5% 29% 29% -37.0%
≤90d 28 -10.3% -18.9% 39% 36% -5.3%
all 178 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 39% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -8.4%
10% -24.5% 35% -17.2%
15% -31.8% 30% -25.2%
20% -38.5% 25% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$584) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$278 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$5,324
Realized+$755
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses75 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions13
Markets (closed)178 / 191
History coverage599d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 60¢ 83¢ $721 $1,004 +$283 (+39%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 79¢ 92¢ $817 $947 +$129 (+16%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 47¢ 81¢ $470 $815 +$345 (+73%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $695 $558 −$138 (-20%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 31¢ 14¢ $930 $435 −$495 (-53%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $275 $396 +$121 (+44%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $335 $282 −$52 (-16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $108 $259 +$151 (+139%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $183 −$17 (-8%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $270 $174 −$96 (-36%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $350 $136 −$214 (-61%)
Celonis IPO before 2027? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $104 $80 −$24 (-23%)
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $47 $56 +$9 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $412 −$257 -62%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,132 −$178 -16%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,184 −$990 -84%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $356 −$50 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 22 $584 −$40 -7%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $432 −$258 -60%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $257 −$227 -88%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $309 +$181 +59%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $206 +$169 +82%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $372 +$198 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $598 −$598 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $38 −$32 -85%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $500 −$57 -11%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $566 +$162 +29%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 09 $2,156 +$1,514 +70%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $779 +$719 +92%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 01 $820 +$85 +10%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 01 $3 −$2 -97%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? May 01 $457 +$462 +101%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $311 −$271 -87%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $249 −$195 -78%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $317 −$285 -90%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 30 $153 +$120 +79%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $670 −$175 -26%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 24 $350 −$54 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $1,814 +$655 +36%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 05 $51 −$46 -90%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $650 +$160 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 23 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 23 $920 −$790 -86%
Opinion FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $380 −$380 -100%
GPT ads by March 31? Feb 11 $38 +$93 +245%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Feb 04 $196 −$4 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 04 $530 −$10 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 04 $795 −$15 -2%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $727 +$273 +38%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 29 $97 +$65 +68%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil Jan 25 $571 +$184 +32%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $560 +$940 +168%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Jan 14 $708 +$228 +32%
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 14 $139 +$101 +72%
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 14 $467 +$133 +28%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $287 −$287 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 10 $987 −$28 -3%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $253 −$253 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $118 −$118 -100%
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11? Jan 09 $344 −$344 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $155 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $395 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $393 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $194 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $306 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $544 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $356 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 73¢ $584 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $713 7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $175 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $509 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $257 9d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $388 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $287 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $102 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $432 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $87 16d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $571 16d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $346 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $4 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,324.33 · official $5,324.43 (match) · 1135 history records