Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e87…da91 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$803 (+1%) realized +$803 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,271per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$567est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$4,075
sports 30% −$7,198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 46% -11.7%
≤30d 26 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 46% -11.7%
≤90d 26 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 46% -11.7%
all 26 +21.4% +9.8% 50% 46% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.8% 46% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -0.7% 38% -20.1%
15% -10.3% 27% -27.9%
20% -19.1% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +66% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,003 vs −$1,243 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$567
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2,271
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $902 −$820 -91%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $559 −$137 -24%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,594 −$1,523 -96%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,067 −$439 -21%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,382 +$727 +53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,047 −$1,851 -90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,458 −$1,614 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,249 +$1,768 +54%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,470 −$306 -21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,817 +$834 +30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,345 +$524 +22%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $980 −$885 -90%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,332 +$1,061 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,404 −$1,083 -25%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $967 +$837 +86%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $6,677 −$6,528 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6,880 −$62 -1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,666 +$3,581 +98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2,040 +$474 +23%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $921 −$415 -45%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,341 +$175 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,450 +$384 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,274 −$502 -39%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $294 +$2,305 +784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,527 +$207 +14%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $400 +$165 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $82 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $488 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $414 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $423 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $559 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes $72 4h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,594 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,628 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,067 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $2,109 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,382 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $98 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $146 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,949 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 14¢ $844 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,458 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $5,018 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,249 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $1,164 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,470 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,652 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,817 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,869 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $95 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $2,345 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $980 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,393 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $2,332 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $110 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $196 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records