Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6e8a…ac66 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$365 (-7%) realized −$362 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$387
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$1,508
other 41% +$1,118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% -19.4%
≤90d 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% -19.4%
all 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 43% -19.4%
10% -28.0% 43% -27.1%
15% -35.0% 43% -34.1%
20% -41.4% 29% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$555 vs −$513 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage14d
Avg bet$523
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 37¢ 34¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,525 −$1,504 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $508 −$496 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $853 +$1,348 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $595 +$259 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $87 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 36¢ $29 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 37¢ $31 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czec BUY 33¢ $1,497 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $1,525 8d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 38¢ $2 11d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $508 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,200 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $853 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $595 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.78 · official $112.79 (match) · 15 history records