Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e8d…3a3d sports 1455 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,612 (-6%) realized −$3,607 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%659W / 769L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$543est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$185
7 days+$354
14 days+$215
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,484
other 2% −$150
crypto 1% −$193
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 55% +6.5%
≤30d 215 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 48% -11.9%
≤90d 835 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 47% -12.1%
all 1428 -8.9% -17.5% 46% 46% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 46% -13.7%
10% -25.4% 45% -21.9%
15% -32.6% 43% -29.5%
20% -39.2% 39% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$37 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$3,607
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses659 / 769
Est. fees paid−$543
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1428 / 1455
History coverage180d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Yes 35¢ 34¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 37¢ 38¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$90 +45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$21 -21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$14 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$48 +79%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$17 +165%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: 1st Hal Jun 20 $81 +$74 +91%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $51 +$25 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $30 +$26 +86%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $91 +$62 +68%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $179 +$85 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$71 +70%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$29 +97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$28 +93%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$10 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$32 +88%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $51 +$62 +122%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$19 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$33 +81%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $102 +$102 +101%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $61 +$36 +59%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $40 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $30 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 38¢ $61 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $48 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL 60¢ $107 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY 55¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $31 3h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 11h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 52¢ $80 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 21h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $44 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $61 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $30 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $51 35h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 64¢ $20 37h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 37h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND United States vs. Australia: 1st Hal BUY 52¢ $81 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.81 · official $394.82 · 2802 history records