Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6E 0x6e8d…a2ac crypto 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,500 (+5%) realized +$2,512 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%179W / 111L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$326est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$570
14 days+$845
30 days+$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,631
sports 42% +$177
crypto 4% −$120
weather 0% +$57
world 0% −$3
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +31.3% +18.8% 73% 73% +17.2%
≤30d 36 +18.6% +7.3% 69% 61% +1.7%
≤90d 178 +1.2% -8.4% 62% 47% -5.5%
all 290 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 49% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 49% -5.1%
10% -17.9% 40% -14.2%
15% -25.8% 29% -22.5%
20% -33.1% 18% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$55 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized+$2,512
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses179 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$326
Open positions12
Markets (closed)290 / 302
History coverage105d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $600 $574 −$26 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $397 $456 +$59 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $258 $184 −$74 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $124 $172 +$48 (+39%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $169 −$31 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $75 $105 +$30 (+40%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 79¢ 98¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $305 −$135 -44%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $203 +$191 +94%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$82 +81%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$68 -66%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$178 +88%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $102 +$37 +37%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$79 -77%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$65 +63%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$77 +75%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $608 −$339 -56%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $789 +$234 +30%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$41 -80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$54 +107%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $102 +$370 +361%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $21 −$18 -90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $303 +$26 +8%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $508 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $734 −$569 -78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 +$24 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $102 −$96 -94%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,468 +$156 +11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $712 +$284 +40%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 30 $151 +$57 +38%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $203 −$100 -49%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $153 −$132 -86%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 +$73 +71%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $202 +$80 +39%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $503 +$13 +3%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $544 +$39 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 21 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +36%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $30 −$27 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 20 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $40 −$33 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $58 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $97 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $8 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $183 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $394 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 35h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 35h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $34 37h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $57 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $381 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 30¢ $140 47h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $23 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.13 · official $2,341.21 (match) · 1027 history records