Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6e8e…8884 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$78 (+6%) realized +$79 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$64
14 days+$57
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$42
world 16% +$9
crypto 8% −$9
politics 6% +$2
finance 5% $0
tech 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.5% +2.7% 100% 100% +2.7%
≤30d 5 -12.2% -20.6% 60% 40% -1.0%
≤90d 13 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 23% -6.4%
all 13 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 23% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 23% -6.4%
10% -22.6% 8% -15.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -23.5%
20% -37.0% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage68d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 28? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 26 $470 +$64 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -92%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$14 -24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $48 +$17 +35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $91 +$6 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 27 $230 −$23 -10%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 20? May 20 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $25 +$4 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 23 $61 −$1 -2%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $63 −$4 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $70 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 28? BUY Yes $5 2h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 67¢ $73 2d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 50¢ $16 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 50¢ $15 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 26¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 26¢ $10 8d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 55¢ $10 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $43 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $47 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $64 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $48 12d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $4 12d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $55 12d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $10 12d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $10 12d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $64 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $2 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $30 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $42 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 69¢ $42 13d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 62¢ $4 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.65 · official $73.65 (match) · 58 history records