Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e8f…34b4 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+14%) realized +$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$51
sports 27% +$32
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 40% -17.8%
≤30d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 40% -17.8%
≤90d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 40% -17.8%
all 35 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 40% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% -17.8%
10% -15.1% 40% -25.6%
15% -23.3% 37% -32.8%
20% -30.8% 34% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)35 / 44
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$20 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -89%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 +$4 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$12 +596%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $61 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. P BUY 57¢ $10 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 16¢ $3 9h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $20 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $5 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 12h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 36h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $5 38h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 38h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.39 · official $89.39 · 66 history records