Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e90…4627 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$6
other 43% −$7
politics 8% +$8
sports 2% −$5
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.0% -14.1% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 36 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 89 +2.0% -7.7% 36% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -16.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage474d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $155 $154 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $238 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $368 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $108 +$3 +3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $15 −$7 -50%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $158 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $157 +$2 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $57 −$7 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $161 +$2 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $332 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $315 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,195 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $310 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $171 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $155 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $345 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $157 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $168 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $190 −$4 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $154 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $169 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $317 +$2 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $326 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $133 −$5 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $72 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $156 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $115 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $174 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -17%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $264 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,033 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1,071 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $540 +$9 +2%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 15 $95 −$18 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $114 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 51¢ $41 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $76 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $76 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $73 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $98 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $171 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $112 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $40 27h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $68 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $135 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 36h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $158 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $134 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $135 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $18 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $57 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $163 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.52 · official $153.52 (match) · 330 history records