Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6E 0x6e97…b3f5 crypto 256 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-1%) realized −$33 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%150W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days+$4
14 days−$95
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$220
world 2% −$78
finance 1% +$18
other 1% −$56
politics 0% −$18
tech 0% −$7
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.6% -8.0% 65% 30% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 40% -9.7%
≤90d 147 +7.3% -3.0% 69% 41% -9.2%
all 250 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 36% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 27% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 19% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 14% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses150 / 100
Open positions6
Markets (closed)250 / 256
History coverage130d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Down 67¢ 97¢ $100 $145 +$45 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Down 81¢ 100¢ $104 $128 +$24 (+23%)
Solana Up or Down on June 18? Down 74¢ 98¢ $70 $93 +$23 (+32%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 8¢ 5¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-44%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 59¢ 10¢ $43 $7 −$36 (-84%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Up 35¢ 3¢ $41 $3 −$38 (-93%)
Solana Up or Down on June 18? Up 49¢ 2¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-95%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 47¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $142 +$31 +22%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $241 −$143 -59%
Solana Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $160 +$23 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $76 +$19 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$9 +16%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $167 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $202 +$47 +23%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $123 +$43 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $57 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $64 −$11 -17%
Solana Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $251 −$18 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $140 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $172 −$46 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$9 -18%
Solana Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $95 −$55 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $139 +$5 +4%
Solana Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $139 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $22 +$3 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $225 +$9 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $109 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +13%
Solana Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $154 +$31 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $5 +$4 +79%
Solana Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $114 +$11 +10%
Solana Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $104 −$14 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $148 −$38 -26%
Solana Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $140 +$32 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $65 +$15 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $37 +$17 +45%
Solana Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $6 +$2 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $309 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $22 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $61 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $202 $0 +0%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Solana Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $302 −$29 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 30? Apr 30 $388 −$131 -34%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $163 +$86 +53%
Solana Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $262 −$68 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 29? Apr 29 $223 +$126 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 12¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 95¢ $51 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 89¢ $22 10h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 94¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 87¢ $11 17h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 85¢ $11 17h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 80¢ $18 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 79¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 86¢ $22 18h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 41¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 51¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 59¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 58¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 54¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 60¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 55¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 45¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 54¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 50¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 52¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 57¢ $6 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 58¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 56¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 47¢ $5 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 49¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 61¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 59¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 42¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 43¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 35¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.07 · official $387.95 (match) · 1531 history records