Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e98…f7fb crypto 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate54%77W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$40
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$136
weather 37% +$53
sports 19% +$93
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 11% -6.8%
≤30d 64 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 11% -6.4%
≤90d 64 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 11% -6.4%
all 142 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 11% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 11% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses77 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 142
History coverage107d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$15 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? Jun 22 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $51 +$32 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $79 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $55 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $50 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June SELL No 100¢ $49 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June BUY No 99¢ $49 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 86¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $29 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $29 21h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $50 41h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $50 41h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 64¢ $27 43h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $50 43h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $44 44h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 22? BUY No 98¢ $44 44h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $10 44h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $50 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.26 · official $6.26 (match) · 2097 history records