Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6E
0x6e9a…f3bb
politics · 165 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$12,020 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$607 · open +$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$219
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses116 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1,485
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 1 History 164 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$241
7 days+$529
14 days+$826
30 days+$3,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $180 $219 +$39 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $239 +$11 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $54,844 +$1,136 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,503 +$85 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $705 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $477 −$47 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $16 +$2 +14%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $498 +$2 +0%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1,086 +$2 +0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1,057 −$957 -90%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $38 +$6 +17%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +39%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $388 +$5 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $21 +$12 +56%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $4,806 +$54 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $93 +$4 +4%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $140 −$96 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $230 −$24 -10%
Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? Jun 10 $1,500 +$15 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $1,092 +$6 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $421 +$19 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,305 +$3 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 +$6 +45%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $6,608 +$207 +3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $30 +$3 +10%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $7,298 +$67 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $959 +$6 +1%
Will Trump praise Ronny Jackson by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $44 +$3 +6%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Trump praise Oz Pearlman by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 +$2 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $285 −$60 -21%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $160 −$2 -1%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? Jun 05 $7 +$1 +12%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $228 +$17 +8%
FDA approves Vepdegestrant? Jun 05 $222 $0 -0%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 04 $360 +$19 +5%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $336 +$17 +5%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,681 +$66 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10,320 +$201 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $137 −$3 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $60 +$42 +69%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $165 −$98 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 02 $44 +$33 +74%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 02 $91 −$41 -45%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $0 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% +$1,076
world 32% −$1,879
other 10% +$468
crypto 5% +$756
sports 3% +$202
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% +$28
finance 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $32 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $9 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $57 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $27 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $8 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 4h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 18% -9.0%
≤30d 115 +4.9% -5.0% 71% 22% -7.4%
≤90d 164 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 21% -9.3%
all 164 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 21% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 21% -9.3%
10% -12.8% 15% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -21.2% 10% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $218.73 · official $218.73 (match) · 3500 history records