Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9c…8f27 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%19W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$9
other 12% +$2
finance 4% $0
sports 3% −$13
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 25 +1.4% -8.2% 44% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 38 +1.5% -8.1% 45% 11% -8.8%
all 53 -4.6% -13.7% 36% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 9% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses19 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage539d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $105 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2 $0 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $48 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $135 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $11 −$1 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $78 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $13 +$3 +21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $9 +$2 +27%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 18 $37 +$2 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 -8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -4%
Oregon State vs. Portland Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Southern Mississippi vs. Arkansas State Feb 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Jan 18 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney? Jan 05 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Franz Wagner win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Olympiacos win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Jayson Tatum win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Jan 01 $7 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Jan 01 $0 $0 -33%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 31 $0 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 31 $1 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 31 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $22 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $44 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $2 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $46 37h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $4 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $1 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $0 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $44 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 186 history records