Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6e9e…208c sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+2%) realized +$284 · open −$184
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$275
7 days+$375
14 days+$236
30 days+$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$347
other 46% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +15.7% +4.7% 47% 47% +23.6%
≤30d 62 +8.0% -2.3% 40% 32% -4.1%
≤90d 93 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 32% -7.8%
all 93 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 32% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 32% -7.8%
10% -19.0% 25% -16.6%
15% -26.8% 24% -24.7%
20% -34.0% 23% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$184
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions8
Markets (closed)93 / 101
History coverage58d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals No 66¢ 36¢ $334 $183 −$152 (-45%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 41¢ $90 $82 −$8 (-9%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 22¢ $79 $57 −$22 (-27%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $25 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) South Africa $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $2 −$1 -46%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan Jun 22 $10 $0 -2%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 22 $154 −$15 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $144 +$296 +206%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $201 −$197 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$16 +76%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $151 +$82 +55%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$18 +93%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 19 $178 +$93 +52%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$22 +276%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand Jun 18 $61 +$7 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 +$76 +206%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $11 +$9 +76%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $13 −$13 -99%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $12 +$2 +16%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $24 +$4 +17%
Orebro SK vs. GIF Sundsvall: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 +$38 +1845%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $19 −$19 -97%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $15 −$15 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 04 $65 +$34 +52%
Centurion 2: Robin Bertrand vs Patrick Zahraj Jun 03 $31 +$21 +67%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 02 $58 −$57 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $15 −$15 -97%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 01 $30 −$30 -97%
Real Racing Club leading at halftime? Jun 01 $7 +$6 +83%
Will BK Hacken win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $16 +$34 +216%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $9 +$11 +124%
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $49 +$2 +5%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 May 31 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Poland (-2.5) May 30 $18 −$18 -97%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 0.5 May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 16¢ $1 59m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 66¢ $124 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 66¢ $115 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 66¢ $59 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY No 65¢ $39 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target SELL Yes $0 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 43¢ $6 4h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan SELL Singapore 95¢ $9 14h
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Singapore vs Uzbekistan BUY Singapore 96¢ $10 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $70 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $74 27h
Belgium to win the second half? SELL No 43¢ $139 28h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY No 46¢ $154 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 34h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $74 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $127 2d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY South Africa $2 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $11 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $21 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $9 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $72 3d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 64¢ $151 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 4d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 65¢ $130 4d
SC Recife vs. AC Goianiense: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand BUY Malaysia 89¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.64 · official $599.64 (match) · 183 history records