Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6e9e…02b7 world 140 markets active 1d ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,046 (+1%) realized +$2,420 · open +$626
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate80%94W / 23L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,976per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9,543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$131
14 days−$49
30 days+$304
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$693
other 12% +$219
finance 7% +$99
politics 5% +$288
sports 2% +$491
tech 1% +$111
economics 0% +$9
crypto 0% +$45
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +207.3% +178.1% 67% 22% -4.7%
≤30d 41 +57.0% +42.0% 83% 22% -7.9%
≤90d 75 +29.5% +17.2% 76% 17% -8.7%
all 117 +25.0% +13.1% 80% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.1% 15% -9.1%
10% +2.3% 6% -17.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -25.7%
20% -16.7% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$820) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$45 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$9,543
Realized+$2,420
Unrealized+$626
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses94 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions28
Markets (closed)117 / 140
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$1,976
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,911 $1,999 +$88 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 74¢ 82¢ $814 $907 +$93 (+11%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $583 $598 +$16 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $422 $478 +$56 (+13%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 99¢ $356 $398 +$42 (+12%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? No 97¢ 98¢ $389 $392 +$3 (+1%)
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No 95¢ 96¢ $380 $382 +$2 (+1%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $294 $300 +$5 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $293 $299 +$7 (+2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $288 $299 +$11 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 83¢ 100¢ $249 $299 +$49 (+20%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $255 $299 +$44 (+17%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $288 $292 +$3 (+1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $246 $276 +$30 (+12%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $235 $250 +$15 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $239 $248 +$10 (+4%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $245 $248 +$4 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $243 $241 −$2 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $186 $200 +$13 (+7%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 77¢ 100¢ $154 $199 +$45 (+29%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $174 $189 +$15 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $156 $171 +$15 (+10%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $147 $153 +$5 (+4%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $129 $150 +$21 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 78¢ 98¢ $116 $148 +$31 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-11? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 30 $1 −$243 -39498%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Jun 30 $0 +$20 +12845%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 30 $196 +$6 +3%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $98 +$56 +57%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $186 +$14 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $971 +$29 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $820 +$20 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $158 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $370 −$38 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $344 +$63 +18%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $90 +$30 +33%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $326 +$24 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $186 +$14 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $295 +$5 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $481 +$12 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $316 +$16 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $426 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $509 −$13 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $238 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $58 −$4 -7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $134 −$35 -26%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 09 $1,618 +$17 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $15,678 +$88 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $986 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $92 +$16 +17%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $567 +$20 +4%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$20 +20%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +413%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $86 +$14 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $130 +$10 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $198 +$8 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $228 +$22 +10%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $264 +$36 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $988 +$12 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1,448 +$52 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? May 29 $233 −$41 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $348 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $147 −$91 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $162 +$33 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $152 −$46 -30%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 21 $276 +$16 +6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1,091 +$40 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 19 $230 +$70 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 77¢ $154 34h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $295 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $243 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $239 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $30 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $79 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No $2 3d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $7 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $139 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $91 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $7 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $18 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $14 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $69 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 4d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $245 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $92 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $98 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $583 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $13 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $32 7d
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,542.51 · official $9,542.51 (match) · 3500 history records