Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6ea1…8eb3 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$14
politics 41% −$13
sports 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -3.6% -12.7% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 124 -5.2% -14.2% 6% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×10.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 116
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage116d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $456 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $69 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $208 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $234 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $359 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $194 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $178 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $352 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $166 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $389 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $361 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $208 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $195 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $425 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $158 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 8h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 9h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 30h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $18 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 14d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 373 history records