Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:22:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6ea2…a4f7 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+14%) realized +$496 · open +$124
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$870per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$86
world 39% +$90
finance 7% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤30d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.5%
≤90d 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.5%
all 3 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 0% -6.5%
10% -15.8% 0% -15.4%
15% -23.9% 0% -23.6%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized+$496
Unrealized+$124
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage7d
Avg bet$870
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 99¢ $878 $923 +$45 (+5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 72¢ 93¢ $278 $358 +$79 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Jun 25 $301 +$7 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 24 $631 +$6 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $814 +$46 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $11 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $157 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $202 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $549 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 93¢ $917 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 68¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 68¢ $918 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL No 94¢ $307 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $77 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $302 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 73¢ $303 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 68¢ $203 4d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 98¢ $638 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $859 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $35 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $93 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $93 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $93 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $405 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $63 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $500 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 93¢ $301 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 97¢ $631 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 92¢ $301 6d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,280.83 · official $1,280.83 (match) · 26 history records