Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6E 0x6ea4…9d9a sports 67 markets active 5h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$796 (+6%) realized +$795 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$1,168
14 days−$1,407
30 days−$1,407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$581
other 21% +$201
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -49.9% -54.7% 27% 27% -48.4%
≤30d 57 -33.3% -39.6% 32% 32% -25.7%
≤90d 57 -33.3% -39.6% 32% 32% -25.7%
all 65 -20.0% -27.6% 38% 38% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 38% -3.9%
10% -34.5% 37% -13.1%
15% -40.8% 35% -21.5%
20% -46.6% 32% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$97 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$795
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage639d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $201 +$99 +49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$20 +64%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $105 −$104 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 +$54 +119%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $323 +$177 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 23 $117 −$117 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $109 −$109 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 23 $113 −$113 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $113 −$113 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $140 −$140 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $295 −$295 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $105 +$95 +90%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $58 +$42 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $83 +$117 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $74 +$126 +170%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $98 +$102 +104%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $86 +$214 +250%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $940 +$1,060 +113%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025? Jun 12 $270 −$270 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $94 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 29h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 30h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 67¢ $67 30h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 67¢ $134 30h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $76 31h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $105 32h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $113 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $46 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $323 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $53 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $54 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $60 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $58 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $109 6d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $140 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $83 6d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $28 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $8 8d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $89 8d
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $52 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.00 · official $103.00 (match) · 224 history records