Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ea5…6c53 sports 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-9%) realized −$215 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%34W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days−$26
14 days−$19
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$378
other 14% +$75
crypto 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.7% -22.9% 49% 49% -11.5%
≤30d 82 -19.9% -27.6% 41% 39% -19.1%
≤90d 82 -19.9% -27.6% 41% 39% -19.1%
all 82 -19.9% -27.6% 41% 39% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 39% -19.1%
10% -34.5% 39% -26.8%
15% -40.8% 39% -33.9%
20% -46.6% 39% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses34 / 48
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions7
Markets (closed)82 / 89
History coverage28d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jean Matsumoto 61¢ 64¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ 62¢ $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Farman Hasanov 61¢ 60¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Quinn vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 Over 55¢ 65¢ $26 $30 +$5 (+18%)
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ 50¢ $32 $26 −$5 (-17%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Jefferson Nascimento 58¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $25 +$30 +124%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $26 −$26 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $89 +$60 +67%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $75 +$39 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$34 +114%
Jack Draper vs. Ugo Humbert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $104 −$26 -25%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $75 +$45 +60%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $34 +$23 +67%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $16 +$10 +62%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $28 −$28 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$4 -14%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 25 $50 +$31 +62%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$21 +52%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $37 −$37 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $26 −$25 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $28 +$21 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $37 +$22 +60%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $57 −$56 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 +$20 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $26 +$16 +61%
Zverev vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $35 +$30 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$28 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $52 −$51 -99%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $14 −$13 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Perugia: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 04 $27 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $32 57m
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main BUY Nazim Sadykhov 61¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 58¢ $28 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Jean Matsumoto 61¢ $32 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 2h
Quinn vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 55¢ $26 5h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $44 5h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $45 9h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 9h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $26 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 10h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 11h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $26 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $44 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $33 16h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $20 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $30 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $45 19h
Jack Draper vs. Ugo Humbert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 56¢ $3 20h
Jack Draper vs. Ugo Humbert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 58¢ $18 20h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 52¢ $25 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $75 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 62¢ $75 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert SELL Jack Draper 63¢ $76 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Jack Draper 64¢ $79 27h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $16 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $28 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.48 · official $190.48 (match) · 161 history records