Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6ea5…a58e world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$552 (-16%) realized −$152 · open −$400
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$452
world 22% −$130
politics 11% −$327
tech 7% −$191
economics 6% +$25
culture 6% +$187
crypto 5% +$19
sports 3% −$100
weather 3% +$36
finance 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 39 -18.1% -25.9% 49% 41% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 41% -26.9%
10% -33.0% 31% -33.9%
15% -39.5% 21% -40.3%
20% -45.4% 15% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$59 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$400
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage334d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 26 $30 +$9 +32%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or mor Dec 05 $200 +$187 +94%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Dec 05 $30 +$11 +36%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July? Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in October? Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference? Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Dec 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Tea App removed from App Store by August 31? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? Dec 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31? Dec 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza? Dec 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by July 31? Dec 05 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 23 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Oct 23 $238 +$32 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 23 $100 +$32 +32%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Aug 16 $50 +$85 +170%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during conference with Putin on Au Aug 16 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Aug 16 $20 +$28 +138%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $200 +$69 +34%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Aug 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Aug 15 $50 +$35 +70%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $104 +$9 +8%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Aug 04 $50 −$50 -100%
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? Aug 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 04 $100 +$36 +36%
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1? Aug 02 $101 +$28 +28%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? Jul 30 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July? Jul 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31? Jul 28 $140 +$3 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jul 28 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $114,000 on August 1? Jul 27 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 26 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 1h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $41 202d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $100 245d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? SELL No 64¢ $271 245d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 65¢ $138 245d
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? SELL No 91¢ $132 245d
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? BUY No 69¢ $100 259d
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? BUY No 48¢ $100 259d
Will Trump talk to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in October? BUY No 70¢ $50 259d
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or mor BUY Yes 52¢ $200 259d
US government shutdown by October 1? BUY No 25¢ $51 271d
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? SELL Yes 38¢ $135 313d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? BUY No 71¢ $30 314d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 314d
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August BUY No 42¢ $20 314d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during conference with Putin on Au BUY No 31¢ $10 314d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 34¢ $85 314d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 319d
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31? BUY No $30 324d
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 325d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 325d
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? BUY Yes $20 325d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? SELL No 93¢ $136 325d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? BUY No 69¢ $100 327d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY No 76¢ $30 328d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 41¢ $100 329d
Will Germany airdrop aid into Gaza? BUY No 12¢ $100 329d
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 329d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.49 (match) · 81 history records