Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6ea7…2524 crypto 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$322 (-8%) realized −$328 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%116W / 184L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$21
14 days+$82
30 days+$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,211
sports 2% +$18
other 1% +$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +25.6% +13.7% 38% 38% +18.6%
≤30d 300 +36.8% +23.7% 39% 36% +42.2%
≤90d 300 +36.8% +23.7% 39% 36% +42.2%
all 300 +36.8% +23.7% 39% 36% +42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.7% 36% +42.2%
10% +11.9% 33% +28.6%
15% +1.1% 31% +16.1%
20% -8.8% 26% +4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.99 per $1 lost it wins $20.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses116 / 184
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)300 / 301
History coverage29d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 78¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$3 -30%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$9 +230%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$5 +102%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$13 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$10 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 19h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 19h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $11 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $7 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 8d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.23 · official $35.77 (match) · 569 history records