Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6ea8…0b68 world 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$47 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$15
14 days−$62
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$10
politics 21% −$7
other 7% −$4
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.8% -17.5% 14% 14% -15.2%
≤30d 15 -14.3% -22.4% 20% 20% -17.4%
≤90d 15 -14.3% -22.4% 20% 20% -17.4%
all 15 -14.3% -22.4% 20% 20% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 20% -17.4%
10% -29.9% 7% -25.3%
15% -36.6% 7% -32.5%
20% -42.9% 7% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage26d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 63¢ 96¢ $95 $146 +$51 (+53%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $133 −$7 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 26 $12 −$2 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $15 −$3 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $28 −$13 -45%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$34 +176%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $289 −$34 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $74 −$13 -17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $16 −$7 -43%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $97 −$6 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 07 $80 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $63 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $63 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $77 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 38¢ $63 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $133 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $137 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $12 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $15 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $15 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $24 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $19 5d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $19 5d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $4 11d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $104 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $48 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $60 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $60 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $59 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $61 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $1 13d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $50 14d
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.08 · official $282.08 (match) · 58 history records