Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eaa…525f sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,878 (-18%) realized −$1,833 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$2,590
14 days−$2,493
30 days−$2,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$161
sports 37% −$2,086
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.0% -49.3% 30% 30% -76.4%
≤30d 11 -39.8% -45.5% 36% 27% -36.0%
≤90d 24 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 33% -28.2%
all 24 -11.4% -19.8% 38% 33% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 33% -28.2%
10% -27.5% 33% -35.1%
15% -34.5% 33% -41.4%
20% -40.9% 29% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$211 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1,345
Realized−$1,833
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage39d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $850 $809 −$41 (-5%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$15 -14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $304 +$213 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1,472 −$1,450 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1,207 −$1,200 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 10 $5,004 +$98 +2%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $15 +$26 +172%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $18 +$27 +146%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $25 +$33 +129%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $20 +$44 +216%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $246 +$742 +302%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $23 −$22 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 09 $122 −$120 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $87 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $502 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $410 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $461 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $660 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,207 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $92 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $46 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 26¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $82 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $304 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $812 2d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 47¢ $136 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 47¢ $50 38d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 47¢ $2 38d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $5,004 39d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $82 39d
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Ozzy Diaz 12¢ $10 39d
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) BUY Clayton Carpenter 40¢ $15 39d
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) BUY William Gomis 41¢ $20 39d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $18 39d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Roman Kopylov 36¢ $15 39d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 44¢ $41 39d
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P BUY Djorden Santos 13¢ $8 39d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 21¢ $23 39d
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Jim Miller 31¢ $20 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,345.09 · official $1,345.09 (match) · 45 history records