Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6eaa…e089 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-67%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$45
sports 33% −$53
other 29% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$18 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage369d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 3h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic BUY Djokovic 27¢ $50 138d
MicroStrategy purchases >8000 BTC June 10-16? BUY No 25¢ $44 369d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.35 · official $53.35 (match) · 11 history records