Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6E 0x6eab…9be6 world 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+3%) realized +$79 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$76
world 36% −$3
other 12% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 2 +4.2% -5.7% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤90d 6 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 33% -6.1%
all 6 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 33% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 33% -6.1%
10% -13.5% 0% -15.1%
15% -21.8% 0% -23.3%
20% -29.5% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.12 per $1 lost it wins $12.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage79d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $298 $293 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $266 −$6 -2%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 03 $451 +$49 +11%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) May 04 $472 +$23 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 03 $474 $0 +0%
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) Apr 06 $203 +$4 +2%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 03 $11 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $298 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $69 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $219 6d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club BUY largadosypelados 90¢ $451 18d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 95¢ $472 48d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $474 48d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $474 48d
Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 98¢ $203 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 78d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 79d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.80 · official $292.80 (match) · 21 history records