Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eac…e409 sports 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24,703 (+12%) realized +$24,702 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%135W / 93L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$935per market
Trades / day91.2pace
Fees−$3,455est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,077
7 days+$6,229
14 days+$8,712
30 days+$23,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17,073
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +12.5% +1.8% 65% 61% +16.0%
≤30d 192 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 59% +2.6%
≤90d 228 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 57% -1.7%
all 228 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 57% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 57% -1.7%
10% -13.3% 54% -11.1%
15% ← realistic here -21.7% 51% -19.7%
20% -29.3% 46% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$879) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$494 vs −$533 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$24,702
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses135 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$3,455
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage34d
Avg bet$935
Trades / day91.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 52¢ 52¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $27 +$19 +70%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $285 −$49 -17%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $549 −$549 -100%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,431 +$968 +68%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $258 +$186 +72%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $613 +$421 +69%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 +$1 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $45 +$27 +60%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,344 +$1,707 +73%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $540 +$8 +2%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $1,603 +$1,500 +94%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $649 −$643 -99%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $188 +$162 +86%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $613 −$610 -100%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $623 +$156 +25%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $232 −$231 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $215 −$215 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $322 −$243 -76%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,314 +$1,613 +70%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $275 +$191 +69%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $1,718 +$1,279 +74%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,984 +$1,679 +56%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $572 +$538 +94%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $1,468 −$1,459 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $699 +$300 +43%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $890 −$58 -6%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $59 +$40 +69%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $502 −$499 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $51 +$33 +66%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rock LFO vs Man eSports LFO (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le Jun 13 $67 +$33 +50%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $630 +$485 +77%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 13 $472 +$243 +52%
Game Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Modo Serio (+1.5) Jun 13 $589 +$410 +70%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $278 +$108 +39%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $721 +$501 +70%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $837 +$605 +72%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $519 +$479 +92%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 12 $305 +$250 +82%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $679 −$679 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $272 +$283 +104%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $618 +$455 +74%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $267 +$180 +67%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $279 +$238 +85%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 +$104 +102%
Dota 2: Ignite vs Ttgame (BO3) - The International North America Open Jun 11 $366 +$293 +80%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $549 −$549 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $530 −$529 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $833 +$721 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $116 46m
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 52¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 58¢ $27 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $71 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $69 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $69 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $41 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $69 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $53 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $41 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $28 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $28 14h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 55¢ $16 14h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY QUAZAR 60¢ $270 15h
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F BUY QUAZAR 53¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 67¢ $36 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $43 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 56¢ $43 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 46¢ $8 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 46¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $6 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $15 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $11 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $1 19h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner BUY Millennium Esports 59¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.01 · official $127.01 (match) · 3244 history records