Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6E 0x6ead…14f8 world 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,064 (+8%) realized +$872 · open +$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%77W / 42L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$23
14 days−$157
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$796
finance 7% +$151
other 6% +$74
sports 3% +$85
politics 2% +$59
tech 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 45 -6.9% -15.8% 58% 49% -5.9%
≤90d 107 +7.3% -2.9% 62% 52% -2.5%
all 119 +11.2% +0.6% 65% 52% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 52% -2.2%
10% -9.0% 39% -11.6%
15% -17.8% 25% -20.1%
20% -25.9% 16% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$32 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$2,004
Realized+$872
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses77 / 42
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)119 / 124
History coverage103d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $803 $897 +$94 (+12%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $623 $695 +$72 (+12%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $156 $163 +$7 (+5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 70¢ 94¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $130 $114 −$16 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $60 +$12 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $91 −$14 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$17 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$3 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $315 +$79 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 11 $117 −$5 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $329 −$58 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? Jun 10 $54 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $645 +$69 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $350 −$189 -54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $455 +$120 +26%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $198 −$66 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $84 +$13 +15%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 07 $90 +$21 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$26 +52%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $250 +$65 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Jun 04 $45 −$45 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 04 $162 −$162 -100%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 04 $79 +$35 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$87 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $253 +$47 +18%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 31 $61 +$17 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $230 +$120 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $100 −$34 -34%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $40 +$13 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $130 −$60 -46%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $384 +$91 +24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $42 +$10 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $68 +$8 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $32 +$28 +85%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 24 $233 −$62 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 24 $148 −$37 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 22 $738 +$183 +25%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? May 19 $149 +$10 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 19 $118 +$29 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $266 −$22 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $199 +$23 +11%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? May 18 $56 +$18 +32%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? May 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? May 15 $199 −$38 -19%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 78¢ $72 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 71¢ $250 2h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 78¢ $152 13h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $77 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $18 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $73 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $116 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $66 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL No 94¢ $135 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY No 89¢ $300 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 62¢ $124 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $394 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $112 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $77 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $29 6d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? SELL Yes 52¢ $0 7d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? SELL Yes 54¢ $34 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 7d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 3-1 through 4 games? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 7d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $19 8d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $400 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $527 8d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $14 8d
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $316 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,003.69 · official $2,003.84 (match) · 454 history records