Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:19:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb2…951b other 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$171 (+4%) realized +$171 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%121W / 170L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$198
sports 8% −$31
crypto 4% −$56
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$8
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 42% -27.5%
≤30d 60 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 42% -27.5%
≤90d 60 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 42% -27.5%
all 291 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 41% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 41% -7.0%
10% -21.1% 40% -15.9%
15% -28.7% 36% -24.0%
20% -35.7% 32% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses121 / 170
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 291
History coverage224d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $6 +$3 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $15 +$12 +79%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$3 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $23 −$14 -61%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -20%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $6 +$6 +97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$14 +235%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$3 +76%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$2 +124%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$13 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 +$5 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$9 +226%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $6 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $9 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $11 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 610 history records