Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb3…3a26 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$4
other 22% +$1
politics 12% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -2.0% -11.4% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -2.0% -11.4% 13% 0% -10.0%
all 33 -0.4% -9.9% 30% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage274d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 −$2 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 +17%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $26 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $13 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $13 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 12h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $23 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $26 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $26 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $6 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $16 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $4 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $12 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $18 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records