Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb4…edf7 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$153 (-57%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$78
other 20% −$53
sports 19% +$20
economics 18% −$25
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-68.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +39.5% +26.2% 100% 100% +26.2%
≤30d 1 +39.5% +26.2% 100% 100% +26.2%
≤90d 8 -55.5% -59.7% 12% 12% -50.6%
all 15 -65.0% -68.3% 13% 13% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.3% 13% -55.7%
10% -71.4% 13% -59.9%
15% -74.1% 13% -63.8%
20% -76.7% 7% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage227d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 27 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Dec 02 $17 −$17 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $15 +$10 +69%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by November 30? Nov 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France by November 30? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $70 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $8 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $7 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down $5 33d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 33d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 33d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $19 195d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 206d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 150k 22¢ $10 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes $3 213d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 61¢ $25 220d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records