Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6E 0x6eb5…8588 world 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,374 (+4%) realized +$14,371 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%56W / 7L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$5,041per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,646now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$389
14 days+$590
30 days+$14,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$1,245
sports 8% +$258
other 7% +$224
crypto 7% +$12,653
economics 4% −$1
politics 2% +$30
finance 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 58 -4.8% -13.8% 90% 2% -5.2%
≤90d 63 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 2% -5.4%
all 63 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 2% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 2% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 2% -14.5%
15% -29.2% 2% -22.7%
20% -36.1% 2% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$7,488) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$67 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.3 per $1 lost it wins $31.3
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$5,646
Realized+$14,371
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses56 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage36d
Avg bet$5,041
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,643 $5,646 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $25,979 +$210 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $21,827 +$22 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $7,714 +$21 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $9,440 +$18 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $648 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $13,580 +$14 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $25,800 +$104 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,442 +$5 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $7,017 +$17 +0%
Exact Score: Bahrain 2 - 2 Syria? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $20,880 +$211 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $4,603 +$46 +1%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $3,865 +$47 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20,869 $0 -0%
Will "John Lithgow" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $95 −$95 -100%
Will "Nathan Lane" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $90 −$90 -100%
Will "Shoshana Bean" win Best Featured Actress in a Musical at the 202 Jun 08 $133 −$133 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $96 +$5 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $17,913 +$91 +0%
Will "Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)" win Best Musical a Jun 08 $245 +$5 +2%
Will "Titaníque" win Best Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $292 +$8 +3%
Will "Becky Shaw" win Best Revival of a Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $359 +$4 +1%
Will "Every Brilliant Thing" win Best Revival of a Play at the 2026 To Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Oedipus" win Best Revival of a Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $408 +$21 +5%
Will "Danny Burstein" win Best Featured Actor in a Play at the 2026 To Jun 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Will "Richard O'Brien's The Rocky Horror Show" win Best Revival of a M Jun 08 $158 +$3 +2%
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $193 +$7 +4%
Will "Little Bear Ridge Road" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $63 +$1 +1%
Will "Ana Gasteyer" win Best Featured Actress in a Musical at the 2026 Jun 08 $288 +$12 +4%
Will "Nicholas Hytner" win Best Direction of a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $52 +$1 +1%
Will "Robert Icke" win Best Direction of a Play at the 2026 Tony Award Jun 08 $66 +$1 +1%
Will "Kenny Leon" win Best Direction of a Play at the 2026 Tony Awards Jun 08 $114 +$2 +1%
Will "Mark Strong" win Best Leading Actor in a Play at the 2026 Tony A Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will "Takeshi Kata" win Best Scenic Design of a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Will "Natasha Chivers" win Best Lighting Design of a Play at the 2026 Jun 08 $144 +$1 +1%
Will "Isabella Byrd" win Best Lighting Design of a Play at the 2026 To Jun 08 $51 +$2 +5%
Will "August Wilson's Joe Turner's Come and Gone" win Best Original Sc Jun 08 $89 +$3 +3%
Will "The Lost Boys" win Best Original Score at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $188 +$12 +6%
Will "Walter Trarbach" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Jun 08 $6 +$1 +9%
Will "Brenda Abbandandolo" win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 20 Jun 08 $134 +$3 +2%
Will "Emilio Sosa" win Best Costume Design of a Play at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $144 +$1 +1%
Will "Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli and Tye Blue" win Best Book Jun 08 $51 +$4 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $989 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22,883 +$12,653 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $6,362 +$13 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $297 −$89 -30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $6,104 +$25 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $6,528 +$67 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,455 +$14 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $185 9m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 47m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $374 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $384 48m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,446 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $124 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11,218 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $124 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $12,400 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $661 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $992 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $4 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,646.09 · official $5,646.09 (match) · 426 history records