Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6E 0x6eb9…54a4 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$19 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%61W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 44% -6.9%
≤30d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 61% 44% -6.9%
≤90d 106 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 47% -6.5%
all 106 -0.4% -9.9% 58% 47% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% -6.5%
10% -18.5% 39% -15.4%
15% -26.4% 24% -23.6%
20% -33.6% 18% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses61 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage90d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 29¢ 26¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 26 $119 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $126 −$33 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $128 +$83 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$12 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$18 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$7 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 09 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 09 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 09 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $25 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 09 $30 −$27 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $42 −$22 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 09 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 09 $24 −$12 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $37 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $43 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $14 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $67 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.78 · official $60.95 · 348 history records