Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6E 0x6eba…cbcf other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$115 (+17%) realized +$158 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$45
sports 45% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 46% +10.9%
≤30d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 46% +10.9%
≤90d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 46% +10.9%
all 13 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 46% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 46% +10.9%
10% -32.1% 46% +0.3%
15% -38.7% 23% -9.4%
20% -44.7% 15% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$158
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -70%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $87 +$20 +23%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $105 +$92 +88%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +59%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 −$9 -22%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $87 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 6h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 26h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 26h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 38h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 38h
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 38h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 56¢ $16 42h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 42h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $143 45h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $125 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.29 · official $97.29 (match) · 32 history records